The Character X Factor in Selecting Leaders: Beyond Ethics, Virtues, and Values

Leading with character requires a person to maintain a delicate balance of certain traits and understand the tensions which exist between humility and conviction, reluctance and courage, and vulnerability and integrity. A true leader must look beyond the content of a problem and rather examine the context of his or her individual make-up in relationship to themselves as well as to their surroundings

A hierarchy of personal agency for people with life-limiting illness

The purpose of the study was to discover how individuals diagnosed with a life-limiting illness experienced themselves as agents, even in the face of death. In this qualitative, multiple case study design four female outpatient hospice patients with terminal illnesses received humanistic counselling to explore their experiences of themselves and their illness. A graded set of 8 levels of personal agency emerged from analyses of the texts of their sessions, ranging from a passive, objectified Non-agentic mode to an active, autonomous Fully Agentic mode, with multiple subcategories representing further gradations within levels. Our results are consistent with guidelines for supportive and palliative care with advanced cancer, which specify that dying patients’ needs be assessed and that they be involved in decisions about their care

Short course on principles and applications of beach nourishment

Covers the engineering aspects of beach nourishment. (Document is 192 pages

Effects of Interactions on the Critical Temperature of a Trapped Bose Gas

We perform high-precision measurements of the condensation temperature of a harmonically-trapped atomic Bose gas with widely-tuneable interactions. For weak interactions we observe a negative shift of the critical temperature in excellent agreement with mean-field theory. However for sufficiently strong interactions we clearly observe an additional positive shift, characteristic of beyond-mean-field critical correlations. We also discuss non-equilibrium effects on the apparent critical temperature for both very weak and very strong interactions.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors

A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for U. S. time series 1871-1986: versions using real interest rate data, aggregate real consumption data, and return variance data. The results yield a metric to judge the relative importance of real dividend growth, measured real discount rates and unexplained factors in determining the dividend-price ratio.

Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View

The expectations theory of the term structure implies that the spread between a longer-term interest rate and a shorter-term interest rate forecasts two subsequent interest rate changes: the change in yield of the longer-term bond over the life of the shorter-term bond, and a weighted average of the changes in shorter-term rates over the life of the longer-term bond. For postwar U.S. data from Mcculloch [1987] and just about any combination of maturities between one month and ten years we find that the former relation is not borne out by the data, the latter roughly is. When the yield spread is high the yield on the longer-term bond tends to fall, contrary to the expectations theory; at the same time, the shorter-term interest rate tends to rise, just as the expectations theory requires. We discuss several possible interpretations of these findings. We argue that they are consistent with a model in which the spread is a multiple of the value implied by the expectations theory. This model could be generated by time-varying risk premia which are correlated with expected increases in short-term interest rates, or by a failure of rational expectations in our sample period.

Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models

In a model where a variable Y[sub t] is proportional to the present value, with constant discount rate, of expected future values of a variable y[sub t] the "spread" S[sub t]= Y[sub t] - [theta sub t] will be stationary for some [theta] whether or not y[sub t]must be differenced to induce stationarity. Thus, Y[sub t] and y[sub t] are cointegrated. The model implies that S[sub t] is proportional to the optimal forecast of [delta Y{sub t+1}] and also to the optimal forecast of S*[sub t], the present value of future [delta y{sub t}]. We use vector autoregressive methods, and recent literature on cointegrated processes, to test the model. When Y[sub t] is the long-term interest rate and y[sub t] the short-term interest rate, we find in postwar U.S. data that S[sub t] behaves much like an optimal forecast of S*[sub t] even though as earlier research has shown it is negatively correlated with [delta Y{sub t+1}]. When Y[sub t] is a real stock price index and y[sub t] the corresponding real dividend, using annual U.S. data for 1871-1986 we obtain less encouraging results for the model, al-though the results are sensitive to the assumed discount rate.

Regional/District economic developments

Federal Reserve District, 5th ; Economic indicators

A Banker’s Perspective on the Financial Crisis

During the last several years Robert Amzallag as Senior Fellow at CIRANO has taken an active interest in the research and transfer activities undertaken by the Finance Group. He has suggested initiatives that would be relevant to the financial industry in Montreal, particularly in derivative products and concerning practical issues in governance at the director’s level. As the former President and CEO at BNP Paribas (Canada), Mr. Amzallag is certainly well placed to offer insightful commentary on the financial crisis that has preoccupied us over the last several months. Mr. Amzallag’s presentation combines a retrospective analysis of root causes of the crisis followed by some thoughts on what’s to come. As to causes, he isolates three trends that have been gathering force over several decades. These include the erosion of certain stabilizing factors, particularly in the credit market, that has lead to extreme concentrations of risk. Looking to the future, Mr. Amzallag cautiously explores the consequences of several scenarios or responses to the crisis. The first two represent the pursuit of policies reflecting established political sensibilities involving different degrees of government intervention. The third represents a more thoughtful re-appraisal of the different functions that the key players—governments, central banks, regulators and financial institutions —should pursue and should be left to pursue. We have also invited CIRANO Fellow Michel Magnan, Professor of Accounting at Concordia’s John Molson School of Business to present an overview of the controversy surrounding marking to market, an issue highlighted by Mr. Amzallag as an important aspect of the crisis. Professor Michel Magnan takes up the technical but crucial issue of whether fair-value accounting [FVA] was an inadvertent messenger of the financial crisis or was an actual contributor to the crisis. The point is far from academic. By way of appendices to these presentations, the Finance Group has prepared a graphic tool that permits the time-series presentation of key financial indicators against the historical background of the crisis. As well, we have prepared a primer on structured products, including synthetic CDOs, that have played a lead role in the current crisis. This presentation leads naturally to the software module developed at CIRANO that explores the risk management dimensions of these products.